{"id":831,"date":"2011-02-21T17:44:14","date_gmt":"2011-02-21T15:44:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.invest-aura.com\/?p=831"},"modified":"2018-02-01T16:11:14","modified_gmt":"2018-02-01T14:11:14","slug":"winning-the-churn-reduction-war-how-to-use-churn-prediction-techniques-to-improve-customer-retention","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/02\/winning-the-churn-reduction-war-how-to-use-churn-prediction-techniques-to-improve-customer-retention\/","title":{"rendered":"Winning the war against churn: how to use churn prediction techniques to improve customer retention"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There is no question that churn is <em>the<\/em> plague of the telecom industry.\u00a0 In the mobile business, annual churn rate of 20%-30% are standard.\u00a0 In developing countries, churn can be as high as 60% per annum.\u00a0 Do you know any other industry where companies lose 20%-60% of their customers between the 1<sup>st<\/sup> of January and the 31<sup>st<\/sup> of December?<\/p>\n<p>High levels of churn are the results of both the supply-side and demand-side peculiarities of telecom service providers.\u00a0 On the supply side, operators engage in intense marketing activities, launching new tariffs, handsets and promotions on a continuous basis to lure end-users to their own service offering. On the demand side, barriers to switch are very low: SIM cards are mostly free, prepaid customers usually do not have to provide much information, and in countries where Mobile Number Portability has been implemented, customers can take their phone number with them to their new service provider.<\/p>\n<p>But if churn is the plague, you don\u2019t have to be fatalistic. Tomorrow\u2019s winners will be service providers that better understand what customers want and better anticipate how customers will behave. This applies to churn as well and raises questions such as: can we forecast which customers are likely to churn in the near future? Can we explain churn? Can we retain customers who are about to churn?<\/p>\n<p>Yes, we can. Churn can be reduced, and should.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.invest-aura.com\/software\/lumata\/\"><img data-attachment-id=\"2122\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/02\/winning-the-churn-reduction-war-how-to-use-churn-prediction-techniques-to-improve-customer-retention\/churn_prediction_arpu_boost\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/Churn_prediction_ARPU_boost.png?fit=1086%2C624&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1086,624\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Churn_prediction_ARPU_boost\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Higher ARPU, lower Churn, more Active Subs&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/Churn_prediction_ARPU_boost.png?fit=300%2C172&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/Churn_prediction_ARPU_boost.png?fit=720%2C413&amp;ssl=1\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2122\" title=\"Churn_prediction_ARPU_boost\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.invest-aura.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/Churn_prediction_ARPU_boost-1024x588.png?resize=640%2C367\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"367\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/Churn_prediction_ARPU_boost.png?resize=1024%2C588&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/Churn_prediction_ARPU_boost.png?resize=300%2C172&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/Churn_prediction_ARPU_boost.png?w=1086&amp;ssl=1 1086w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a>Impact of Churn prediction and Micro-campaigning <em>(Source: Investaura, Lumata)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><!--more-->INVESTAURA has developed a five-step Churn Prediction and Customer Retention process as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Step 1: in the initial step we use <strong>data mining techniques<\/strong> and <strong>statistical analysis<\/strong> to develop churn prediction models that accurately predict which customers are likely to churn in the next 1-2 months.\u00a0 Typically, these models will identify 50%-70% of the near-term churners within 10% of the total customer base.\u00a0 Note that these models can be very good at <em>predicting<\/em> churn, but they are not always so good at <em>explaining<\/em> churn.\u00a0 Yes, they do provide typical characteristics of churners broken down by customer segments; but say, if men are more likely to churn than women, the models do not really explain why.\u00a0 So hypotheses can be formulated, but these need to be crosschecked with customer feedback.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Also, some of the identified customers are much more valuable than others, which leads to the following step.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Step 2: <strong>Customer Lifetime Value<\/strong> (CLV) is estimated for each customer, on a monthly or bimonthly basis. The calculation of the CLV will draw on the results of the previous step, using in particular the <em>survival function<\/em> to calculate the probability that a current customer will still be customer and generate revenues in the next months and years.\u00a0 Also the calculation of the CLV is greatly facilitated when the telco has undertaken a <em>service costing<\/em> exercise in the past, as profit margins are then known on a service (voice, data), call types (on-net, off-net) as well as user basis.\u00a0 At the end of step 2, you will know your target for retention: those customers who are both likely churners and are particularly valuable.\u00a0 Let us say that these represent 2%-4% of your total customer base, in a given month.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Step 3: in this step, we <strong>plan and design the retention campaign(s)<\/strong>.\u00a0 Customer retention can be expensive, so even if we know from Step 1 and Step 2 which customers should be addressed, the retention campaign has to be designed in such a manner that it is <strong>not only low cost but also bring maximum impact<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">There are two main cost components in a retention campaign: the cost of contacting customers and the cost of the incentive provided to customers so that they do not churn.\u00a0 SMS as communication channel is used extensively in marketing, in particular for cross-selling and up-selling.\u00a0 Although it is a very cheap way to approach customers, it is not always appropriate for customer retention for two reasons:\u00a0 first it does not provide any feedback or insight on the reason why customers might be thinking of churning; secondly it might provide costly incentives to customers who are not planning to churn in the first place (remember that the churn prediction is not perfect!).<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">More often that not, <strong>customers churn because they are not satisfied with the quality of their interaction with their service provider, not because of price<\/strong>.\u00a0Think about it: did you ever get a call from your service provider asking whether everything was allright?<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">This is the reason why we believe that customer retention based on a <strong>dialogue strategy<\/strong> should also be implemented: telcos can collect customer feedback that helps understand the true nature of churn, and minimise the cost of incentives \/ compensation.\u00a0 While talking to customers, front-office staff can react flexibly to customer needs and show that they do care, which does not necessarily mean giving something away for free.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Step 4: in this step, <strong>the retention campaign is executed over a 2-6 weeks period<\/strong>.\u00a0 Various customer segments can be approached in parallel, using various communication channels and various short-term retention measures and incentives.\u00a0 In this phase, customer feedback needs to be channelled back to the back-office team for further analysis and suggestions.\u00a0 This feedback provides useful input data for the identification of <strong>medium-term churn reduction measures<\/strong> such as:\n<ul>\n<li>launching new tariff options and products that better meet the needs of individual customers segments<\/li>\n<li>improving the quality of service (sales, CRM, network)<\/li>\n<li>improving brand strength<\/li>\n<li>creating barriers to exit<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Step 5: this phase is about <strong>quantifying the overall performance of the churn prediction and customer retention process<\/strong> (Step 1-4):\u00a0 did we address the right customers?\u00a0 How many customers could be retained?\u00a0 How much did this cost?\u00a0 How much additional revenues and profit were generated from the customers retained?\u00a0 What did we learn from customers?\u00a0 Do we understand the drivers of churn better than before?\u00a0 What can we improve in the next cycle?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The impact of a professionally orchestrated churn reduction programme can be massive.\u00a0 One of our customers could <strong>reduce its churn rate by more than 20%<\/strong> and is saving millions of dollars in the process, while increasing its market share. A number of mobile operators have communicated that they could decrease churn between 15% and 50% depending on customer segments. According to INVESTAURA\u2019s estimation, <strong>reducing churn by 10% points leads to an improvement in EBITDA margin of 2%-4% points<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>What about you? \u00a0Are you doing all what it takes to reduce churn and unlock value in your business?<\/p>\n<p>Read further:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.investaura.co\/?p=1205\" target=\"_self\">The 5 reasons why your churn reduction measures are not working, and what you can do about it<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.investaura.co\/2013\/04\/the-true-cost-of-churn\/\" target=\"_self\">The true cost of churn<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is no question that churn is the plague of the telecom industry.\u00a0 In the mobile business, annual churn rate of 20%-30% are standard.\u00a0 In developing countries, churn can be as high as 60% per annum.\u00a0 Do you know any&#8230; <\/p>\n<div class=\"more-link-container\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/02\/winning-the-churn-reduction-war-how-to-use-churn-prediction-techniques-to-improve-customer-retention\/\">Read More<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[90,1],"tags":[7,9,60],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Winning the war against churn: how to use churn prediction techniques to improve customer retention | Investaura<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/02\/winning-the-churn-reduction-war-how-to-use-churn-prediction-techniques-to-improve-customer-retention\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Winning the war against churn: how to use churn prediction techniques to improve customer retention | Investaura\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There is no question that churn is the plague of the telecom industry.\u00a0 In the mobile business, annual churn rate of 20%-30% are standard.\u00a0 In developing countries, churn can be as high as 60% per annum.\u00a0 Do you know any... 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5 reasons why your churn reduction measures are not working, and what you can do about it","date":"February 10, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Truth be told, you don't need a Ph.D. in data mining or statistical analysis to reduce churn. Which is good news. Truth be also told: investing tons of money in data mining tools does not guarantee success - more often than not, it guarantees failure. Churn reduction is a complex\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Insights&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Business_Planning2.jpg?fit=1024%2C631&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1314,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2012\/05\/ibm-whitepaper-quotes-investaura-and-the-work-that-we-are-doing-to-reduce-service-provider-churn\/","url_meta":{"origin":831,"position":1},"title":"IBM whitepaper quotes Investaura and the work that we are doing to reduce service provider churn","date":"May 5, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Investaura is pleased to appear in one of the most recent IBM whitepapers: \u00a0Harness the power of data and analytics to maximize the value of each customer [download id=\"3015\"] This excellent whitepaper highlights how mobile and fixed line telecoms service providers can leverage the data that they have about their\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Whitepaper&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Business_Planning2.jpg?fit=1024%2C631&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1644,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2013\/04\/the-true-cost-of-churn\/","url_meta":{"origin":831,"position":2},"title":"The true cost of churn","date":"April 24, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"We are often asked how high the cost of churn to service providers really is. As often in economics in general, and costing in particular, it really depends how you look at costs and value, i.e. whether you focus on the direct costs only, or include the indirect costs as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Investaura Analysis&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.invest-aura.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/04\/churn_simulation_1-1024x473.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":775,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/02\/calculating-your-customer-lifetime-value-correctly\/","url_meta":{"origin":831,"position":3},"title":"Are you calculating the Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) correctly?","date":"February 11, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"There are two main mistakes that people do when they calculate the CLV.\u00a0 \u00a0The first one is to simply multiply the customer ARPU by the EBIT margin of the company to estimate the customer profitability in a given month.\u00a0 This is quite bad, but the second mistake is a lot\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Investaura Analysis&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2061,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/business-planning-and-costing-free-simple-template\/","url_meta":{"origin":831,"position":4},"title":"Business Planning and Costing made easy: free financial template!","date":"February 18, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Business planning and costing don't have to be complicated. They aren't!\u00a0INVESTAURA is pleased to provide you with this simple Excel template to help you get started. You need to register for free as a 'Discovery' member on this web site to download the Business Planning and Costing simple Excel template\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Finance templates&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.invest-aura.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/Business_Planning_Made_Easy.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":733,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/01\/outsourcing-to-outsource-or-be-outsourced-that-is-the-question\/","url_meta":{"origin":831,"position":5},"title":"Outsourcing: To outsource, or be outsourced? 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