{"id":762,"date":"2011-02-02T02:46:24","date_gmt":"2011-02-02T00:46:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.invest-aura.com\/?p=762"},"modified":"2025-03-17T11:09:05","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T09:09:05","slug":"stop-using-irr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/02\/stop-using-irr\/","title":{"rendered":"Stop using the IRR!"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s funny that the IRR \u2013 the Internal Rate of Return \u2013 is still in use with finance professionals.\u00a0 Actually it is not funny, it is sad, especially when you consider the many flaws that the IRR has. \u00a0But it is human after all: the IRR looks like a wonderfully simple selection criteria.\u00a0 If a project delivers 15% IRR and my cost of capital is only 10%, then I should invest in this project!\u00a0 And if another project delivers 20% IRR, then I should invest in that one instead!\u00a0 Unfortunately, things are not that simple.<\/p>\n

But what is the IRR?\u00a0 It is really hard to find anyone who can explain it in terms that make sense.\u00a0 No surprise there: the IRR is a mathematically defined percentage and most people hate mathematics.\u00a0 By the way: do you know that the IRR is so fuzzy that it can only be calculated by computers (and Excel) using iterative methods i.e. you can simply calculate IRR as a simple sum or ratio of other things.\u00a0 Unlike your beloved NPV, ROIC and the likes.<\/p>\n

So what is the IRR once again?\u00a0 The IRR is the discount rate that makes the NPV equal to zero when the IRR is used instead of the WACC in the NPV formula.\u00a0 Why should that be any good?\u00a0 Well, a promising project should have NPV>0 when discounted at the cost of capital (WACC), and the higher the discount rate, the lower the NPV you would expect.\u00a0 So as NPV (IRR) = 0, the IRR tells you how much the WACC would have to be increased to in order to make the project NPV nil, so turn a promising project into one that does not look promising any longer.\u00a0 By the way, I forgot: if expected future cashflows are always positive, then there is no IRR \u2013 because you can\u2019t make the NPV nil \u2013 unless the IRR is infinite.\u00a0 Put it another way: any project with only positive future free cashflows has an infinite IRR.\u00a0 Great. But confusing.<\/p>\n

But why do people use the IRR?\u00a0 The appealing thing about the IRR is that it gives you the feeling of having a safety margin for your WACC.\u00a0 If your WACC is 10% and the project IRR 20%, then it looks like you have 10% point of safety.\u00a0 Sounds great!\u00a0\u00a0 Especially when you have used a company WACC rather than a project WACC (project WACC are difficult to estimate after all, unless you are Einstein).\u00a0 But single project WACC might be (much) higher than the company WACC (especially if you are looking at a start-up or a turn-around case). \u00a0So the IRR tells you how much the project WACC would have to be to make the investment unattractive.\u00a0\u00a0 If you are a venture capitalist, then your project WACC (or your hurdle rate) will often be 30% or more.\u00a0 So a project with an IRR of less than 30% will be unattractive to you.\u00a0 Well, you won\u2019t see many of them in the boardroom (you are a board member, aren\u2019t you) for a start, because as the saying goes: is this project presented to me because it has an IRR higher than 30%, or is this project IRR higher than 30% because it is presented to me?<\/p>\n

One of the many problems with the IRR is that it is difficult to relate to and not intuitive at all.\u00a0 If the WACC is 10%, how good is an IRR of 15% versus an IRR of 20%?\u00a0 Well, 20% sounds better than 15%, but if the NPV of the project with the IRR of 15% equal to USD 1bn, and the NPV of the project with the IRR of 20% is USD 10m, which project do you prefer?\u00a0 Do you prefer to be USD 1bn richer or only USD 10m?\u00a0 The former I presume.\u00a0 So assuming all other things (like project risks) being equal, the project with the IRR of 15% is more attractive than the one with the IRR of 20%.<\/p>\n

If this is not confusing enough, sorry to confuse you once more:\u00a0 do you know that some projects have multiple IRRs?\u00a0 So which one do you take then?<\/p>\n

After so much confusion, we would not want to leave you in the dark.\u00a0 So if you discard the IRR \u2013 and you won\u2019t lose much \u2013 what do you do then?\u00a0 Our recommendation: forget about the IRR altogether, and focus on value creation instead, using the NPV.\u00a0 Ideally combined with other measures like the cashflow profile, the peak funding requirement, ROE or ROIC, as well as an analysis of project risks.<\/p>\n

If you somehow need a margin of safety, then increase your WACC to a (more?) realistic project WACC level and use it to calculate the NPV.\u00a0 In a transaction context (M&A \/ equity sale) this will put pressure on the transaction price.\u00a0 Buying at a good price is your best margin of safety.\u00a0 Not a convoluted mathematical number that is difficult to interpret.<\/p>\n

In case you are not sick enough about the IRR by now, here is an extract from INVESTAURA\u2019s recently published book<\/a> \u2018Business Planning for Managers\u2019 where further food for thought is provided on one of the most misleading and misconceived financial indicator, the IRR<\/a>. You might also be interested to run your own IRR simulation and know more about the project that has two different IRRs<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s funny that the IRR \u2013 the Internal Rate of Return \u2013 is still in use with finance professionals.\u00a0 Actually it is not funny, it is sad, especially when you consider the many flaws that the IRR has. \u00a0But it… <\/p>\n

Read More<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7910,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[86],"tags":[35,33],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nStop using the IRR! | Investaura<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/02\/stop-using-irr\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stop using the IRR! | Investaura\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It\u2019s funny that the IRR \u2013 the Internal Rate of Return \u2013 is still in use with finance professionals.\u00a0 Actually it is not funny, it is sad, especially when you consider the many flaws that the IRR has. \u00a0But it... 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