{"id":730,"date":"2011-01-19T17:04:21","date_gmt":"2011-01-19T15:04:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.invest-aura.com\/?p=730"},"modified":"2025-03-17T11:12:11","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T09:12:11","slug":"time-to-dump-your-european-telecom-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/01\/time-to-dump-your-european-telecom-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Time to dump your European telecom stocks?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This column might be unpopular. But if you are honest with yourself, you know that the truth often hurts.<\/p>\n<p>Check a couple of big European service provider stocks on Yahoo Finance or your preferred financial web site. Look at the last 2 years, 5 and 7 years \u2013 take 7 years rather than 10 to hide the 2000-2002 dot.com crash, which was truly exceptional. What do you see?<\/p>\n<p>We have done the check for you, for the following European service providers: BT, Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom (Orange), Telecom Italia, Telefonica, Vodafone. And added the Euro Stoxx 600 index on top as benchmark.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Over the last 2 years, this is what happened:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Down a lot: France Telecom<\/li>\n<li>Down a bit: Deutsche Telekom, Telecom Italia<\/li>\n<li>Up a bit: Telefonica<\/li>\n<li>Up a lot: Vodafone, BT, Euro Stoxx 600 index<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And the results are, over 5 years:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Down a lot: BT, Deutsche Telekom, Telecom Italia<\/li>\n<li>Down a bit: France Telecom, Euro Stoxx 600 index<\/li>\n<li>Up a bit: Vodafone<\/li>\n<li>Up a lot: Telefonica<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Over 7 years, you get the following picture:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Down a lot: Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom, Telecom Italia<\/li>\n<li>Down a bit: BT, Vodafone<\/li>\n<li>Up a bit: Euro Stoxx 600 index<\/li>\n<li>Up a lot: Telefonica<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Conclusion: owning any of the big telecom service provider stocks in Europe between early 2004 and early 2011, apart from Telefonica (which behaves more than its Latin American holdings), has not been particularly rewarding. In the best case, the stocks were flat or slightly down. In the most common case, the stocks were down 25%-60%.\u00a0 Disappointing indeed.<\/p>\n<p>So time to sell? Don\u2019t be fooled by the rear mirror view. Look at P\/E instead, or better the E\/P i.e. earnings yield, and compare them with long-term bond yields. What do you see this time? Earnings yield for telecom stocks are above 10%, whereas bond yields are about 5%. Great news:\u00a0 Telecom stocks are dead cheap!<\/p>\n<p>So what does that mean? European Telecom Service Provider stocks, after a brief life as growth stocks in the late and crazy 90s, have behaved very much like value stocks since the end of the crash (not the financial crash, the dot.com crash). France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom have dividend yields of 7%-10%. Vodafone and Telecom Italia have been less generous in terms of dividend distributions, but also have earning yields around 10%. BT has been more irregular, but dividend yield was also 11% in 2008.<\/p>\n<p>There is a saying on the stock market that the winners in the last economic cycle won\u2019t be the winners in the current one. If you believe that, and if you also believe that we still have a long bull ahead of us, selling our European telecom stocks might not be a bad idea. They have underperformed their respective index in the last 7 years, and it is unclear why they would overperform now.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, if you like bonds, then holding telecom stocks is not a bad idea. At the current valuations, they give you an excellent return and are largely protected against major downsides (something that you can not certainly tell from long-term treasury bonds).<\/p>\n<p>All in all: whether you should buy or sell telecom stocks does not depend on the past but depends on what you believe is going to happen in the future that is not reflected in the current market prices. If your believes are essentially the same as those of the consensus market view: then forget it, you do not know something that others don\u2019t. You should not buy individual stocks, buy the European index instead.<\/p>\n<p>In the short term, the stock market moves up and down when unexpected things happen and take everybody by surprise. In the long-term, stock prices go up because demand for stocks is growing faster than supply.<\/p>\n<p>Most European Telecom Service provider still need a good growth story. The consensus view currently is that none of them is going to pull one out of its hat any time soon.\u00a0 It can take a lot of time for a value company to re-invent its DNA \u2013 see how Apple Computers struggled during most of the 1990s, and how Nokia is struggling today.<\/p>\n<p>But what if everybody is wrong? Can France Telecom, Vodafone and the likes still surprise us?\u00a0\u00a0 Read our future column on how service providers might re-invent their NDA.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This column might be unpopular. But if you are honest with yourself, you know that the truth often hurts. Check a couple of big European service provider stocks on Yahoo Finance or your preferred financial web site. Look at the&#8230; <\/p>\n<div class=\"more-link-container\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/01\/time-to-dump-your-european-telecom-stocks\/\">Read More<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7910,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[88],"tags":[28],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Time to dump your European telecom stocks? | Investaura<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/01\/time-to-dump-your-european-telecom-stocks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Time to dump your European telecom stocks? | Investaura\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This column might be unpopular. 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This includes three big names in the market:\u00a0 Vodafone, France\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock valuation&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Business_Planning2.jpg?fit=1024%2C631&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2518,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/05\/ten-years-holding-shares-in-france-telecom-i-cant-see-the-orange-i-can-only-see-red\/","url_meta":{"origin":730,"position":1},"title":"Ten years holding shares in France Telecom: I can&#8217;t see the &#8216;Orange&#8217;, I can only see &#8216;red&#8217;","date":"May 2, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Ten years ago, I bought shares in Orange (the mobile business) and France Telecom (the parent of Orange), which are now one and the same company. I made two mistakes at the time: After France Telecom's share price had gone down by more than 80%, I thought that it was\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock valuation&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.invest-aura.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/Orange2.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":962,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/06\/vietnams-failed-telecom-privatisation\/","url_meta":{"origin":730,"position":2},"title":"Vietnam&#8217;s failed telecom privatisation","date":"June 30, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Vietnam is an interesting country for telecoms.\u00a0 In the mobile space, it counts seven (yes, 7!) operators: the three giants \u2018Viettel\u2019 (controlled by the Ministry of Defense), Mobifone and vinaphone (both controlled by incumbent fixed line operator VNPT); the four \u2018battling\u2019 challengers S-Fone (controlled by Saigon Postel, now that SK\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market news&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.invest-aura.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/vietnam_market_2010-1024x451.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2010\/11\/itil-only-for-it-part-2-of-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":730,"position":3},"title":"ITIL: only for IT? (Part 2 of 2)","date":"November 12, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"Translated from an original article written by Thomas Bez, TEDESCA Consulting, www.tedesca.com \u00a0 The TeleManagement Forum (TMF) Framework Unlike the ITU-T, the TMF is not a traditional standardisation organization but an independent industry consortium of telecom network operators, manufacturers and service providers. This is probably one of its greatest advantages,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Insights&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Business_Planning2.jpg?fit=1024%2C631&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":559,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2010\/10\/breakthrough-on-the-stock-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":730,"position":4},"title":"Breakthrough on the stock markets?","date":"October 15, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"I don\u00b4t know whether you have noticed, but something happened on the stock markets this week. Take the DAX Total Return, a well-constructed index (unlike the Dow Jones).\u00a0 The index had been hitting a ceiling at 6300 points a number of times this year but never managed to get through.\u00a0\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock valuation&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Business_Planning2.jpg?fit=1024%2C631&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":733,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/01\/outsourcing-to-outsource-or-be-outsourced-that-is-the-question\/","url_meta":{"origin":730,"position":5},"title":"Outsourcing: To outsource, or be outsourced? That is the question","date":"January 20, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"For telecom service providers, outsourcing has always been a tough decision.\u00a0 In the past, the most common processes that have been outsourced fall into three broad categories: Call centre \/ contact centre \/ CRM IT services, whether relating to the enterprise internal needs (e.g. desktop services, Data Centre Services, ERP)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Insights&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/730"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=730"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/730\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5213,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/730\/revisions\/5213"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}