{"id":1741,"date":"2014-02-07T17:47:48","date_gmt":"2014-02-07T15:47:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.invest-aura.com\/?p=1741"},"modified":"2017-02-01T17:39:17","modified_gmt":"2017-02-01T15:39:17","slug":"forget-moores-law","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/","title":{"rendered":"Supply side forecasting: Forget Moore’s law, there is now a better model"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future”<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Yes, forecasting can be hard. But on the supply side, the good news is that many technologies display constant growth rate over time. This means that capacity is growing exponentially and when plotted on a logarithmic scale, capacity is a linear function of time. Sounds familiar? Yes, this is Moore’s law: the number of transistor per chip has been correctly predicted by to double every 2 years on average since the 1960s, giving an annual growth rate of +40%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: INVESTAURA using data from Motorola, Intel, AMD<\/p>\n

That the IT and consumer electronics industry could maintain growth rate between 30% and 60% over long periods of time is really remarkable, not only because of the great technical performance enhancements involved, but also because of the seemingly insatiable readiness of the market to absorb those capacity increases and build new products around them.<\/p>\n

But not all technologies follow Moore’s law, and the exponential growth model might not always be appropriate. In fact, there is now a better model: it is called the “Step and Wait” model (SAW). A paper by Gareth James and Gerard Tellis, professors at the USC Marshall School of Business and their co-authors Ashish Sood, at Emory and Ji Zhu at the University of Michigan, concludes that Moore’s Law does not apply for most industries, including the PC industry.<\/p>\n

\"\"Source: Ashish Sood,\u00a0Gareth James, Gerard Tellis, Ji Zhu<\/p>\n

The original research article can be downloaded HERE<\/a>. It is a bit indigest, but the following article and explanation<\/a> from USC Marschall is most readable. Enjoy!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future” Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics Yes, forecasting can be hard. But on the supply side, the good news is that many technologies display constant growth rate over time…. <\/p>\n

Read More<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[86],"tags":[13,64],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nSupply side forecasting: Forget Moore's law, there is now a better model | Investaura<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Supply side forecasting: Forget Moore's law, there is now a better model | Investaura\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future” Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics Yes, forecasting can be hard. But on the supply side, the good news is that many technologies display constant growth rate over time.... Read More\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Investaura\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-02-07T15:47:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2017-02-01T15:39:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/www.invest-aura.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/MIPS2-1024x685.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"INVESTAURA\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"INVESTAURA\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"INVESTAURA\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/760bde379c19373c5f6700b6c2573090\"},\"headline\":\"Supply side forecasting: Forget Moore’s law, there is now a better model\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-02-07T15:47:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-02-01T15:39:17+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/\"},\"wordCount\":285,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Business planning\",\"Forecasting\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Finance templates\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/\",\"name\":\"Supply side forecasting: Forget Moore's law, there is now a better model | Investaura\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2014-02-07T15:47:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-02-01T15:39:17+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Supply side forecasting: Forget Moore’s law, there is now a better model\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/\",\"name\":\"Investaura\",\"description\":\"The Value Creation Consultants\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Investaura\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/Logo-INVESTAURA_RGB-blau-e1450351498844.jpg?fit=256%2C90&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/Logo-INVESTAURA_RGB-blau-e1450351498844.jpg?fit=256%2C90&ssl=1\",\"width\":256,\"height\":90,\"caption\":\"Investaura\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/1229653\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/760bde379c19373c5f6700b6c2573090\",\"name\":\"INVESTAURA\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b6736bfa63cd4ed52867f06d51f75edb?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b6736bfa63cd4ed52867f06d51f75edb?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"INVESTAURA\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/author\/admin\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Supply side forecasting: Forget Moore's law, there is now a better model | Investaura","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Supply side forecasting: Forget Moore's law, there is now a better model | Investaura","og_description":"“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future” Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics Yes, forecasting can be hard. But on the supply side, the good news is that many technologies display constant growth rate over time.... Read More","og_url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/","og_site_name":"Investaura","article_published_time":"2014-02-07T15:47:48+00:00","article_modified_time":"2017-02-01T15:39:17+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/www.invest-aura.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/MIPS2-1024x685.jpg"}],"author":"INVESTAURA","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"INVESTAURA","Estimated reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/"},"author":{"name":"INVESTAURA","@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/760bde379c19373c5f6700b6c2573090"},"headline":"Supply side forecasting: Forget Moore’s law, there is now a better model","datePublished":"2014-02-07T15:47:48+00:00","dateModified":"2017-02-01T15:39:17+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/"},"wordCount":285,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#organization"},"keywords":["Business planning","Forecasting"],"articleSection":["Finance templates"],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/","url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/","name":"Supply side forecasting: Forget Moore's law, there is now a better model | Investaura","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#website"},"datePublished":"2014-02-07T15:47:48+00:00","dateModified":"2017-02-01T15:39:17+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/02\/forget-moores-law\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Supply side forecasting: Forget Moore’s law, there is now a better model"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/","name":"Investaura","description":"The Value Creation Consultants","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#organization","name":"Investaura","url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/Logo-INVESTAURA_RGB-blau-e1450351498844.jpg?fit=256%2C90&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/Logo-INVESTAURA_RGB-blau-e1450351498844.jpg?fit=256%2C90&ssl=1","width":256,"height":90,"caption":"Investaura"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/1229653"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/760bde379c19373c5f6700b6c2573090","name":"INVESTAURA","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b6736bfa63cd4ed52867f06d51f75edb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b6736bfa63cd4ed52867f06d51f75edb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"INVESTAURA"},"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/author\/admin\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7ecno-s5","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":624,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2010\/11\/business-planning-for-managers-now-available-on-amazon\/","url_meta":{"origin":1741,"position":0},"title":"‘Business Planning for Managers’ now available on Amazon","date":"November 19, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"This guide is the ultimate reference for business planning practitioners. \u00a0Following an introduction, it contrains 13 chapters: Getting started Structuring a business plan Case study of a UMTS service provider What can we learn from the dot.com crash? Financial Statements and Valuation Understanding financial statements Valuing businesses Checklist of common\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Books"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.invest-aura.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/Cover_page.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3078,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2014\/10\/business-planning-template-in-excel-for-the-telecoms-and-ict-industry\/","url_meta":{"origin":1741,"position":1},"title":"Business Planning Excel template for the telecoms and ICT industry","date":"October 16, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Finding a good business plan template in Excel format can be really hard, for the following reasons: You need the right level of detail. More often than not, the templates provided by others (your corporate HQs, your boss, you name it) are much too detailed - if you work for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Finance templates"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.invest-aura.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/Bus_Plan.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3192,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2015\/01\/investauras-new-book-now-available-on-amazon\/","url_meta":{"origin":1741,"position":2},"title":"Investaura’s new book is now available on Amazon: “Business Planning for Managers and Entrepreneurs”","date":"January 28, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Investaura Management Consultants is pleased to announce the publication of its new book on Business Planning for Managers and Entrepreneurs\u00a0(ISBN 978-3-9813734-2-4), written by Pierre A. Lurin, a Managing Partner at Investaura. The paperback edition complements the hardback edition first published in 2010, which has been updated and improved. Apart from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Books"","img":{"alt_text":"Book_Paperback","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.business-planning-for-managers.com\/Worpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Book_Paperback.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1659,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2013\/07\/budgeting-planning-costing-the-first-easy-to-use-solution-in-a-post-excel-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":1741,"position":3},"title":"Budgeting, Business Planning and Service Costing in a box: the first easy-to-use solution a post-Excel world","date":"July 5, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Do you still use Microsoft Excel for Budgeting, Business Planning or Performance Management? Microsoft Excel was good for the job 10-15 years ago, but Excel also has its limits, and you probably have come across many of them already. In particular, Excel is not a database! Today, very powerful, easy-to-use,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investaura Solutions"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.invest-aura.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130614_Architecture-1024x656.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1429,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2012\/07\/why-pe-ratios-are-useless\/","url_meta":{"origin":1741,"position":4},"title":"Why P\/E ratios are useless, unless you are Warren Buffett","date":"July 17, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"In a previous article ('Stop using the IRR!'), we explained why the Internal Rate of Return is a completely misleading and useless measure of finance performance; and recommended to use the ROE (Return on Equity), the ROIC (Return on Invested Capital), as well as the peak funding requirement, the payback\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock valuation"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Business_Planning2.jpg?fit=1024%2C631&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1003,"url":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/2011\/09\/business-planning-budgeting-and-reporting-in-a-box-the-first-end-to-end-solution-for-telecoms-service-provider\/","url_meta":{"origin":1741,"position":5},"title":"Business Planning, Budgeting and Costing in a box: the first end-to-end solution for telecoms service providers","date":"September 1, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Investaura Management Consultants, the telecoms consultancy specialized in Business Intelligence and Performance Management, are pleased to announce the launch of the first end-to-end Business Planning, Budgeting and Activity-Based Costing (ABC) solution for telecoms service providers. The solution was built on the Adaptive Planning platform from Adaptive Insights Inc, the world\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investaura Solutions"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Business_Planning2.jpg?fit=1024%2C631&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1741"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1741"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1741\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5319,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1741\/revisions\/5319"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1741"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investaura.co\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}